All autopsies

// STARTUP COMPARISON

Creditas (2022 crisis) vs Silicon Valley Bank

Creditas (2022 crisis) failed in 2022 due to Unit Economics. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023 due to Unit Economics. Both failed for the same reason — Unit Economics.

METRIC🔥 Creditas (2022 crisis)🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
SectorFintechFintech
CountryBrazilUSA
Founded20121983
Died20222023
Raised$829MPublic company (SIVB)
Peak$4.8B valuation$209B assets
Primary CauseUnit EconomicsUnit Economics

// WHY EACH FAILED

🔥 Creditas (2022 crisis)
Unit Economics
Creditas, Brazil's largest secured lending platform (home equity, auto-secured loans), raised $829M and reached a $4.8B valuation. Brazil's SELIC rate rising to 13.75% in 2022 dramatically increased Creditas's cost of capital while compressing net interest margins. The company laid off approximately 600 employees in 2022 and wrote down its internal valuation by approximately 50%, retrenching to its most profitable loan products.
// LESSON
Secured lending businesses are rate-sensitive in both directions. Low rates are a tailwind — borrow cheap, lend expensive. High rates are a headwind — borrow expensive, can't pass through to collateralized borrowers. Model the up-rate scenario before sizing the team.
🔥 Silicon Valley Bank
Unit Economics
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023 after a bank run driven by duration mismatch. SVB had invested deposits in long-duration bonds during low-rate periods. When rates rose, those bonds lost value. SVB announced a $1.8B loss on bond sales and a capital raise — triggering a $42B bank run in 24 hours. The FDIC seized SVB on March 10, 2023 — the second-largest bank failure in US history.
// LESSON
Asset-liability duration matching is not optional for banks. Investing short-term deposits in long-term bonds is a structural bet against rising rates. SVB had $80B in long-duration bonds when the Fed began the fastest rate rise cycle in 40 years.

// EXPLORE FURTHER